Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $70,000 level as the market shows clear signs of weakening demand following weeks of sustained selling pressure. After several failed recovery attempts, price action continues to reflect fragile sentiment, with liquidity thinning and volatility increasing. Investors remain cautious as macro uncertainty, declining risk appetite, and persistent outflows from speculative assets weigh on the broader crypto market. A recent analysis from Axel Adler indicates that the bear market underway since November 2025 has entered a deeper phase following last Friday’s sharp decline, which pushed total drawdown to roughly 46% from the cycle peak. This magnitude of correction historically marks a transition from an early pullback into a more mature bearish stage, where sentiment typically deteriorates further before stabilization occurs. The report highlights that Bitcoin has approached the 1.25× Realized Price Band, a historically significant level that often separates standard corrections from capitulation phases. When price tests this boundary, market structure tends to become highly sensitive to liquidity shifts and investor positioning. Whether Bitcoin can hold above this zone will likely determine the short-term direction . A sustained breakdown could signal deeper capitulation dynamics, while stabilization may provide the foundation for eventual accumulation. Adler notes that the Bitcoin Bear Market Correction Drawdowns chart places the current 2025–2026 decline in historical context, comparing its magnitude with previous bear cycles. The metric tracks percentage drawdowns from each cycle’s all-time high on a logarithmic scale, allowing a clearer assessment of structural market stress rather than nominal price moves alone. Bitcoin Bear Market Correction Drawdowns | Source: Axel Adler The current bear phase began after Bitcoin topped near $124,450 in October 2025. By November, the market had entered a persistent downtrend, with the correction expanding from roughly −20% to −30% initially before accelerating to around −46% by early February. Notably, the pace intensified sharply: the drawdown moved from approximately −28% on January 28 to −46% by February 6. A modest rebound followed, with price briefly stabilizing near $70,700, still implying a drawdown of roughly −43%. Historically, earlier cycles saw significantly deeper declines, including roughly −93% in 2011, around −83% in both the 2013–2015 and 2017–2018 bear markets, and about −76% during the 2021–2022 correction. Against that backdrop, the current decline appears less severe so far. Adler argues that three months of persistent downside momentum signal entry into a deeper corrective phase. Stabilization between −40% and −50% would suggest moderating cycle volatility, while a drop beyond −50% could reopen downside targets toward the −60% to −70% range. Bitcoin’s latest price action shows a clear deterioration in market structure after the sharp breakdown toward the $65K–$70K region. The chart highlights a decisive loss of short-term support, followed by an aggressive selloff that pushed price well below the key moving averages, signaling sustained bearish momentum rather than a simple correction. BTC testing fresh demand | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView Notably, BTC is trading under the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are beginning to slope downward. This alignment typically reflects a transition from consolidation into a more established downtrend. The rejection near the mid-$90K area earlier in the cycle appears to have confirmed a lower high, reinforcing bearish continuation risk. Volume dynamics also deserve attention. The sharp spike during the most recent drop suggests forced selling, likely driven by liquidations and panic positioning. Historically, such spikes can either mark capitulation or precede further downside if follow-through selling emerges. From a structural perspective, the $65K zone is now critical. Holding above it could allow stabilization and a potential relief bounce. However, a sustained breakdown below this level would likely expose the next demand region closer to the low-$60K range, where stronger historical support may emerge. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers. Sign Up for Our Newsletter! For updates and exclusive offers enter your email. Sebastian's journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies. As his knowledge grew, Sebastian felt compelled to share his insights with others. He began actively contributing to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn, focusing on fintech and crypto-related content. His goal was to expose valuable trends and insights to a wider audience, fostering a deeper understanding of the rapidly evolving crypto landscape. Sebastian's contributions quickly gained recognition, and he became a trusted voice in the online crypto community. To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology. Sebastian's passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K forms, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance. Sebastian's journey as a crypto analyst and investor has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable asset to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and contributing to the growth of this revolutionary technology.